As we examine the production rates in the aerospace and Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) sectors, the aim of Airbus to scale up to 75 aircraft per month is a topic of intrigue within the industry. This goal comes at a time when suppliers are still recovering from the pandemic's impact. Equally ambitious are the projections by AAM companies to reach similar production rates by 2026, with plans to quadruple their output by 2030. It is prudent, however, to step back from specific timelines—be it 2035 or 2040—as this period may well coincide with the advent of the new Mid-Market Airliner.
The collaboration between major automotive manufacturers and AAM enterprises—Toyota with Joby, Stellantis with Archer, and Hyundai with Supernal—lends a semblance of realism to these bold projections. Toyota, for example, produced an impressive 10.5 million vehicles in 2023, making the forecasted production of 2,000–4,000 AAM vehicles per annum appear almost negligible. Even luxury vehicle producers like Maserati, under Stellantis, sold approximately 30,000 units in 2023, bridging the production expectations between automotive and AAM sectors.
However, when compared to commercial aviation deliveries, which totaled only 1,245 in 2023, with roughly 30,000 aircrafts in-service, the disparity becomes evident. Furthermore, the aviation industry is essentially a duopoly with Airbus and Boeing, in contrast to AAM, where 10-15 companies are aiming for similar outputs, with a whopping 250 global AAM projects reported by McKinsey, casting doubt on the actual demand. Adding realism, the majority of OEMs may not endure, suggesting that 2024 could mark the year reflecting Orwell's concept of survival of the fittest, with a particular advantage for the most financially solid companies.
[Source: Aviation Week, 2024]
On the surface, the AAM companies' assertions appear well-grounded, aligning with the impressive manufacturing capacities of their automotive partners. Market Analyst firms offer a wide variety within their forecast models with Roland Berger projecting 64,000 vehicles by 2040 and McKinsey`s number being even higher. However, there's a subtle factor missing in this equation, particularly the challenges of aerospace standards and Part 21/ Part 135 certification. Unlike the automotive industry, the AAM sector must rely on aerospace-grade suppliers, creating a need for meticulous adherence to stringent standards.
[Source: Roland Berger, 2023]
Automakers are gearing up their final assembly lines for AAM OEMs, tapping into their high-volume production acumen. Nonetheless, the supply chain is bracing for a challenge, particularly in composite part manufacturing.
Manual hand-lay-up and autoclave curing, with a few incorporating Automated Fiber Placement (AFP) to enhance efficiency, remains the most used technology. However, this rather conventional approach is losing its practicality as aerospace manufacturing rates are rebounding, intensifying the competition for capacity between traditional aviation and AAM.
A critical bottleneck arises with the limitations of traditional manufacturing methods. The global shortage of autoclaves and the requisite capital investment means that the envisioned production rates may not be sustainable for both sectors. The demand for composite manufacturing capacity in AAMs—despite their smaller vehicle size compared to traditional aircraft—calls for significant investment. As nearly all design proposals favor airframes constructed entirely from composite materials, leveraging their substantial weight advantages to increase the payload capacity or extend the battery range.
This creates a dilemma: OEMs and Tier 1 Suppliers are hesitant to invest in capacity that may become obsolete as the industry has to move away from traditional thermoset hand lay-up autoclave curing to enable manufacturing output as envisioned by the AAM Market.
Given these constraints, the AAM industry is at a pivotal juncture, seeking alternative composite manufacturing methods that could revolutionize the sector. In our upcoming edition, we will explore the innovations and solutions that are driving us towards these novel production rates. The journey is underway, and the potential is vast—as vast as the sky itself.
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